Cedefop has just released its 2020 skills forecast, estimating the annual employment needs across sectors and occupations in the EU Members States up to 2030.

The 2020 update was developed before the coronavirus pandemic. The short-term economic impact of the lockdown in many countries is uncertain, thus this forecast could be over-optimistic. However, the key long-term factors (such as the ageing population, increasing use of automation/artificial intelligence, globalisation, resource scarcity and move towards a carbon neutral economy) still hold. The trends in the longer-term forecast are therefore also likely to hold.

Experts predicted that in the next decade, job polarisation is expected to grow further. Jobs in the higher and lower skills spectrum are expected to grow, squeezing out those in the middle. Overall, four in five new jobs will be in high-skilled occupations. 

Experts estimated that by 2030, the need for workers with high level qualifications will account for about 36.5% of total employment. However, since their supply is outpacing demand, it is more likely that the share of the total employment of persons with high level qualifications will account for 41%. Experts highlights that the skills upgrade or the so-called ‘over-education’ should not always be interpreted negatively, because high-skilled workers find it easier to adapt to new ways of working by making good use of technological advances.

In 2018-2030, the largest increase in demand for employees in Poland is expected to occur in the health services sector, accommodation and food services as well as in education.

The demand for employees with low skills or mid-level qualifications is projected to fall by 3% and 3.4% respectively. However, the demand for highly qualified employees will increase by 3%.

The detailed results of the 2020 skills forecast and future development perspectives for the economic sectors and professions of the EU and member states are available at: https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/data-visualisations/skills-forecast